Sunday, June 03, 2007

The Traveler's Dilemma

Recently happened to read this article on the Traveler's Dilemma by its inventor Kaushik Basu. My take on the game is that it is important to appreciate that fact that one traveler does not know if the other will behave rationally and choose the Nash equilibrium. In the absence of this information, it is possible to abstract it out and say that the other person will act randomly. Now if the other traveler chooses a purely random number, it becomes possible for the first player to choose a number that will give her the highest mathematical probability of gain.

If one has to choose a number between 2 and 100 with +/-2 being the reward/penalty, one gets the highest probability of gain by choosing 100. On the other hand, if one has to choose a number between 90 and 100 with +/-90 being the reward/penalty, one gets the highest probability of gain by choosing 90. In both cases, these numbers would be the first emotional response as well.

PS: In game theory, agents are assumed to be rational (AFAIK).

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